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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd