A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
